In this episode of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down what’s driving the recent market pullback and why it may not be the threat it feels like.
The rally that preceded it was historic. The S&P 500 surged more than 19% over nine consecutive weeks off the March lows, semiconductors climbed roughly 70% in two months, and technology’s outperformance hit what Ryan calls a six sigma event. When moves like that happen, some digestion is normal.
Sonu puts the weakness in context. The May jobs report was strong, with average monthly job growth running at 188,000 over the past three months, well above the 110,000 average for all of 2025. Good economic news met an overstretched market, and a pullback followed. But in all seven historical instances where the market rallied more than 19% in two months off a major low, stocks were higher both six months and one year later every single time.
Beneath the tech volatility, rotation is quietly happening. Financials, industrials, and healthcare have all been holding up. And if everything in your portfolio moved in the same direction over the past two months, that’s a signal you may not be diversified enough.
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 rallied more than 19% over nine consecutive weeks off the March lows, with semiconductors up roughly 70% in two months, making a pullback expected.
- In all seven historical instances of a 19%-plus two-month rally off a major low, stocks were higher both six months and one year later.
- The May jobs report showed 188,000 average monthly job gains over three months, well above 2025’s 110,000 average, with the prime-age employment-population ratio at an expansion-era high.
- Elevated put-to-call ratios signal widespread fear, which has historically been a contrarian indicator rather than a reason to exit.
- Rotation into financials, industrials, and healthcare suggests the broader market is healthier than tech headlines imply.
- If everything in your portfolio moved together over the past two months, you may not be diversified enough.
Jump to:
0:11 — Recording from Omaha Airport
0:47 — Why the Market Is Pulling Back
2:12 — Momentum Extremes and Bubble Talk
2:32 — Strong Jobs Data and AI Spending
4:05 — Fear Signals and Sector Rotation
4:45 — Diversification Rules for Portfolios
6:03 — Buffett Story and Final Takeaways
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
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